Trading opportunities for currency pairs: oil is becoming more expensive. American statistics are disappointing investors who put their money on the dollar. The target is 7.3859 and 20th April’s idea should still be active. A drop in the price will be cancelled out by a recoil and growth of the rate higher than 8.00.
In today’s trading idea I’m looking at primary currencies since the price of Brent crude has grown to 65.80 for the first time since December last year. Support for oil quotes came from the situation that flared up in Yemen and also the reduction in shale mining in the US. The coalition headed by Saudi Arabia has resumed its airstrikes in Yemen. The number of extraction rigs is continuing to fall.
According to data from the American oil and gas company, Baker Hughes, the number of extraction rigs (gas and oil) in the week ending 24th April, fell by 22, to 932. That’s 929 less than a year ago. The number of US rigs for oil alone fell by 31 to 703.
The Norwegian krona’s movements are dependent on those of oil. If the price of oil goes up then the krona strengthens. If it goes down, then the krona against the dollar also goes down.
Last week I expected a break in the trend line due to the growth in oil quotes. The scenarios for a fall in the dollar were cancelled when the rate grew higher than 8.0050. The dollar fought off the line to 7.9580. The price stayed less than 8.0050. After the release of a series of negative data from the USA, the USD/NOK rate returned to the line.
The dollar bulls are worried about a slowing of the US economy if the US Fed doesn’t raise rates in June. The rates of the euro/dollar and pound/dollar have broken their daily trend lines. There’s a high risk that the USD/NOK will head for 7.7144.
There may be a false break on Monday: be vigilant. The FOMC convening on 29th April (Wednesday) will be a key event. In my last idea from 20th April, I considered a fall for the dollar against the Norwegian krona to 7.3859. Nothing has changed. A drop in the price will be cancelled out by a recoil and growth of the rate higher than 8.00.
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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
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