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Greece: Default Postponed?

Greece’s Minister of Finance, Yanis Varoufakis, has assured the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagard, that the Greek government intends to fulfil all of its financial obligations. In business media last week there was information circulating about Greece refusing to pay its debts. However, the official representative of the Greek government announced that on 9th April Greece will settle a 450 million euro payment with the IMF.

This news has perked up Greek debt owners and euro holders. Nevertheless, the fundamental problems that Greek has remain. They are solvable: either by sharply increasing their GDP; or by restructuring their debt. The latter is, of course, much easier and quicker. Probably, the debt will be restructured this year, whether a little bit earlier or later than expected is immaterial. In June 1998, when the IMF announced that they were to provide Russia with credit, euphoria reigned over the bond and stock market in Russia. Those who sold their Russian stocks back then weren’t complaining: by August 1998 when Russia defaulted, Russian debts froze and shares fell to almost zero.

We’re sticking with our pessimistic outlook for Greece and reckon that there’s at least a 50% chance that the country will leave the Eurozone.

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