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EUR/USD: Monday against Friday


In the first half of the day on Friday the euro was trading in a range of 1.0547 – 1.0613. The volatility on the currency market rose after the publication of the NFP.

At first traders paid attention to the employment creation numbers and began selling dollars. The euro rose to 1.0622. When information about the other components of the payrolls came out, the euro lost out, falling to 1.0536 dollars.

Job creation outside of the agricultural sector in the US throughout December rose by 156k (forecasted: 175k). October’s numbers were reassessed from 142k to 135k and November’s were reassessed from 178k to 204k. The total reassessment for the two months stood at an increase of 19k.

The percentage of the population in employment rose from 62.6 to 62.7%. Unemployment was up to 4.7% (forecasted: 4.7%, previous: 4.6%). The index for average hourly wages in the US for December was 0.4% (forecasted: 0.3%, previous: -0.1%).

Market expectations:

On Monday I always look at a movement against that of the previous Friday. On 6th January the euro closed down, and so today I expect it to close the daily candle up. Since the hourly stochastic is in the upper region (around 70%), the price revival according to the forecast should be from 1.0510. If the pair rebounds up from 1.0520, it’s likely there will be a growth to 1.0599. I’m not paying any attention to the stats due to be released.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:00, German November industrial production and balance of trade;
  • 11:15, Swiss November balance of trade;
  • 11:30, UK December housing price index from Halifax;
  • 12:30, Eurozone investor confidence index from Sentix for January;
  • 13:00, Eurozone November unemployment level;
  • 17:00, FOMC member Rosengren speaks;
  • 18:00, US December labour market conditions index from the Fed;
  • 18:30, Bank of Canada’s economic conditions and business development perspectives report;
  • 20:45, FOMC member Lockhart to speak;
  • 23:00, US November changes in consumer financing.

Technical analysis:

Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0509, maximum 1.0563, close: 1.0547.

After the publication of the NFP, the euro fell to 1.0525. At the moment of writing this review, the euro/dollar is trading between the 67th and 90th degrees. The significant level from where the price inverts is the 112th degree. It runs through 1.0494. In accordance with my forecast, I’m waiting for a bounce from 1.0509, but the sellers could put pressure on the price all the way to 1.0494.

I completed the calculation of the levels on the graph using the Asian minimum of 1.0522. If the minimum is updated, then 1.0573 and 1.0599 will need to be dropped by the same amount of points by which the minimum has shifted.

I’ve limited the growth of the pair to 1.0563, although with decent conditions the price could lift to 1.0580. If the euro begins to strengthen without updating the minimum, then the end of the day is likely to see a test of 1.0600.


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