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EURUSD: euro gains on easing Treasury yields

The EURUSD pair logged losses on Monday, March 8, off 0.52% at 1.1846. The dollar continued to advance across the board after Friday's upbeat US jobs report and rising Treasury yields.

In February, the number of non-farm jobs increased by 379,000 compared to 166,000 in January (vs.  182k projected). The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% to 6.2% (vs. the 6.3% median consensus). Average hourly wages rose 5.3% YoY. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 1.622%.

The labor market gains were fueled by a decline in new Covid-19 cases, an accelerated pace of vaccinations and government stimulus in response to the pandemic.

Today’s macro agenda (GMT+3)

  • 10:00 Germany: trade balance (January)
  • 13:00 Eurozone: GDP and employment (Q4)

Current outlook

At the time of writing, the euro was trading at $1.1857. The decline from $1.2113 coincides with the 225-degree angle (Gann levels). In Asian trading, the dollar has been on the back foot against the euro and the pound. Euro crosses are showing mixed dynamics. All sterling crosses are trading in positive territory, so the pound tops the leaderboard in terms of profitability, while the euro ranks second. The dollar is correcting amid a 2.40% decline in the 10-year Treasury yields to 1.56%.

On Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not express any concern about the sell-off in yields, so traders’ attention is still focused on Treasury yield dynamics.

Since February 25, the euro has shed 3.33% to 1.1836 (in 11.5 days). The price action has dropped enough for an upward corrective movement to get under way. Since the news flow is thin today, we expect to see a recovery to 1.1895. The targets for completion of the correction are 1.1925 and 1.1950.

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