Goldman Sachs has dropped its forecast for the prices of Brent and WTI oil benchmarks for 2015-2016, noting that the persistent excess of supply on the market could lead to a fall in prices all the way to $20. The forecast seems very brave and controversial. Of course, one hardly has to bring into question the independence of analytical services of the world’s leading financial companies. Nevertheless, the forecast makes one think: perhaps Goldman Sachs is more than just hoping for the price to fall. In the end, there is a corporate financial interest in it.
In our view, oil quotes are ready for a turn around. The US Fed putting their rates up is already included in the oil price. A price war between OPEC and the US is coming to an end. As soon as American companies start to exit the market, OPEC will lessen its quota and set prices comfortable for itself. For example, Qatar will be right with the price at $80, the Saudis would be comfortable at $105 and Iran would prefer it if the price topped $130. We expect that oil will be going for around $55-60 by the end of the year.