Trading opportunities on currency pair: the Aussie dollar has been thrown into a spiral of sales due to the strengthening of the US dollar and a fall in investment in Australian business in the first quarter. 0.7690 has been passed. Sellers now have to take the rate to 0.7532. If the RBA drops the rate, the target is 0.7420. If not, there’s a possibility of a jump to 0.7820/50 and only then will we see a fall to 0.7532.
In an idea from 25th May I looked at a fall for the AUD/USD to 0.7690 (interim target), with 0.7532 as the main target. 0.7690 has been passed. Now the sellers will take the rate to 0.7532. Then the road to 0.7420 will open with an expanding pattern.
The Australian dollar was thrown into a spiral of sales due to the strengthening of the US dollar and a fall in investment in Australian business in the first quarter. The RBA put its GDP forecasts for 2015 and 2016 down. In connection with this, the market expects the RBA to put its rates down again.
On Friday some weak GDP data came out from the US. American GDP fell by 0.7% over the first quarter (forecasted -0.8%) Take note, the AUD/USD rate following a growth lost all of its gains. Market participants are now waiting for the RBA to convene.
This week is full of macroeconomic news so expect the AUD/USD to see high volatility throughout the week. The important Australian macroeconomic indicators planned for this week are listed in my idea on the GBP/AUD. The depth of the Aussie’s fall will depend on the data published.
If on Tuesday the RBA keeps the interest rate at 2.00, it’s possible we’ll see a growth on the AUDUSD by 100-150 points, as happened on 5th May when the regulator put its rate down. Here it’s necessary to look at the other key pairs. If the dollar falls against the others, it won’t be worth selling the AUD. As part of a correction, the pair could jump to 0.7850.
If the RBA drops the rate, we’re looking at a fall to 0.7420. Maybe it’s a good idea for those sitting with short positions to close them before the RBA convenes and then reopen them afterwards.
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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
Director of Alpari's analytical department
## ojimadu position
Senior Alpari analyst
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