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Short-term Trading Idea FX NZD/CAD – Bear Speculation: Await Break in Trend Line

Trading opportunities on currency pair: the Bank of Canada has reassessed its GDP forecast for Q2 and Q3 upwards. Since 17th March, the price of oil has gone up by 21% to 63.54. It’s highly likely that the rate will drop to 0.9460 and renew its reduction to 0.9018 due to the growth in the price of oil.

The NZD/CAD rate has dropped whilst the Canadian has been being supported by the growth in the oil price. Since 17th March, the price of oil has gone up by 21% to 63.54. The determining characteristic for the growth in oil prices is the reduction in operating shale and oil rigs in the US.

According to data from Baker Hughes, the number of rigs in the country lessened by 34, or 3.44%, on the week ending 17th April. The number now stands at 954. This is 877 less than in April 2014.

So what are the perspectives for the pair? On Friday the NZD/CAD broke from the trend line. I’m inclined to reckon the rate will go up to 0.9460 and renew a reduction to 0.9018 due to the growth in the price of oil. Brent oil at the current price model has gained traction and the potential to grow to 72.65 by the middle of May.

The Bank of Canada has reassessed its GDP forecasts. The Central Bank reckons that economic growth will start to gather pace after the second quarter. It put up its forecast for Q2 from 1.5% to 1.8% and from 2.0% to 2.8% in Q3. If Canadian stats don’t disappoint investors, the Canadian will feel better than the New Zealander.

Whilst the price is above the trend line, inside the day it’s possible to work against the Canadian dollar. If the pair grows to above 0.9480 it’s be better to stave off selling. The basic idea is a reduction of the pair to 0.9018. Here I’m considering a W-form model on the weekly graph.

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