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Euro Stabilizes by Balance Line


Yesterday’s Trading:

The euro/dollar closed down on Tuesday. The eurobulls were knocked down by weak European statistics and a fall in the yield on German bonds. The euro/dollar clung to the support at the 67th degree (1.1204) near the MA line D2.

The yield on the 10-year German bonds fell by 4.35% to 0.791%. The index for economic sentiment and that of the current situation in Germany fell to 31.5 and 62.9 (forecasted 37.1 and 63.0), the sentiment index from the Eurozone fell to 53.7 from 61.2 (forecasted 60.3).

Main news of the day:

  • At 11:30 EET in the UK some data about average wages will be released, as will ILO April figures for the unemployment level and also some statistics for May benefit applications will be released, along with minutes from the Bank of England;
  • At 12:00 EET, the Eurozone is publishing its May CPI;
  • At 21:00 EET, the Fed will make clear its interest rate decision. An announcement from the Fed’s open market committee will accompany the decision announcement;
  • At 21:30 EET the Fed will hold a press conference.

Market Expectations:

The main event of the day will be the FOMC meeting. Nobody expects the Fed to up their rates. The Fed’s Janet Yellen will give a speech following the meeting. Information about a tightening of monetary policy by the central bank is important to traders and investors.

Other than the FOMC meeting, during the day some data about the UK labor market and minutes from the Bank of England’s last meeting’s minutes on monetary policy will be released. After the minutes, Eurozone inflation data will be out. These events are having an effect on the rates of both the pound and the euro. The forecast which I’ve made concerns everything which will happen before the Fed makes its decision.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday targets: maximum for Eurozone -1.1310/15, minimum – n/a, close – n/a. Due to the meeting its difficult to assess the price levels;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 142 points.

The euro/dollar is trading at 1.1256 near the LB. This means that the pair is balanced and ready to stray from the line. The question: in which direction? The Greek situation is still tense and traders haven’t really been reacting to recent developments. The euro/pound has geared up to move southward. By heading down it will exert pressure on the euro.

I’m not excluding a further fall for the euro, but for Europe I’ve chosen a growth in the pairs. The pound is reacting to the Bank of England’s minutes with a growth. Accordingly, this is whilst the cross could cave in and the euro will fall. However, I’m more inclined to believe that the euro will return to 1.13 after the release of the minutes and will be around the LB before the Fed lets us know its decision.

GBP/USD Hourly Graph


Nothing became clear yesterday. There’s a probability that, after the FOMC convenes, the 5-day flat will peak on Wednesday. Let’s have a look at the Weekly tab.

GBP/USD Daily Graph


Today is Wednesday. The current candle is currently in last week’s price zone. Today there’s a lot of important data out. Probably, the situation will become clear after J. Yellen has let us know her thoughts.

GBP/USD Weekly Graph


Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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