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EURUSD: euro falling under pressure from the crosses


On Thursday the 7th of December, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. The euro hit a low of 1.1776 on the back of a decline on the euro/pound cross. The GBPUSD pair dropped to the 1.3320 mark before mounting a 165-pip recovery to reach 1.3485. As the pound’s surge gained momentum around 1.3420 level, the declining euro/pound cross dragged the euro down with it against the dollar from 1.1815 to 1.1773 (-42 pips).

The pound fluctuated sharply over reports regarding the Irish border issue in the Brexit talks. The European Commissioner for Budget and Human Resources, Günther Oettinger, commented that significant progress has been made in the Brexit negotiations with regards to settling the so-called divorce bill. Reuters news agency, quoting an Irish official, reported that both sides are close to reaching a deal on the Irish border.

The dollar has held onto its gains against most of the majors. The number of jobless claims in the US has declined. US 10Y bond yields have risen from 2.32% to 2.367%.

The number of initial jobless claim in the US in the week ending the 1st of December came to 236,000 (forecast: 240,000, previous: 238,000).

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:00 Germany: trade balance (Oct), current account (Oct).
  • 10:45 France: industrial output (Oct).
  • 12:30 UK: industrial production (Oct), manufacturing production (Oct), total trade balance (Oct).
  • 16:00 UK: NIESR GDP estimate (Nov).
  • 16:15 Canada: housing starts (Oct).
  • 16:30 USA: unemployment rate (Nov), Nonfarm payrolls (Nov), average hourly earnings (Nov), average weekly hours (Nov), labour force participation rate (Nov).
  • 18:00 USA: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Dec).
  • 21:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Trading ended badly for the euro yesterday, although my predictions turned out correct. It’s impossible to predict when top representatives of governments and central banks will speak and what they will say. You can protect yourself from any surprises with stop levels, although that may not help in a low-liquidity market.

Moving from the 135th degree, the euro broke through the TR3 trend line and recovered to 1.1815. After the news about Brexit, it fell back to 1.1772, confirming a false breakout of the TR3 line. The trend line currently runs through the 1.1815 high.

In Asia, the pound has made gains against the dollar, while the euro has posted a decline. While the EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs tend to move together, the EURGBP cross has caused a divergence here. The euro is moving towards 1.1745 as most of the euro crosses are trading in the red. The US dollar index, on the other hand, is trading up.

There’s no forecast in today’s review because the nonfarm payrolls report is set to come out in the US. This has a strong influence on currency markets so for me, it seems impossible to make a reasonable intraday forecast. We could see price movements of up to 150 pips.

Markets expect the US to post an increase of 190,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector. In October, this figure reached 261,000. The unemployment rate remains at 4.1%. This report is an important one for the Federal Reserve as it is the last one of the year.

If the NFP report doesn’t induce a reversal, we can expect the euro to reach 1.1712 and then 1.1660. Once 1.1660 level is reached, the way to 1.1490 will be open.

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