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Buyers had their chance

EURAUD has been with us for a long time. We have been observing this pair in anticipation of a bearish breakout from the 1.4444 support. We had to delay our bearish scenario for a while because the price proved the importance of this level again with a nice bounce in August. They say that you can run but you cannot hide and, after a failed neck line (blue) breakout, we have another sign of weakness for this pair.

Over the medium term it looks like all is sorted. We bounced from the long term trend line (black) and returned below the neck line. The bullish upswing from the middle of September can be considered as a false breakout and after this kind of price action punishment usually comes.

It won't happen now or tomorrow. This is a daily chart and we have 350 pips left until this long-term support but as long as price stays below black trend line, the sentiment is negative and the pressure on the support should rise. Traders should be patient and sell on significant signs of weakness. We should have one, not so far from today.


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