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Euro Expected to Break Trend Line

Yesterday’s Trading:

By trade close on Wednesday, the euro/dollar closed slightly up. The day was difficult for the buyers since the euro was under pressure from the cross rates during the day.

In the first half of the day the ECB announced that it’s to start purchasing corporate bonds in June to the tune of 5-10 billion euros for the month. The ECB put pressure on the euro, but strong numbers from the IFO stopped a fall.

The euro jumped up after updating its minimum against the USD. By Europe’s trade close it was trading up. Today the rate reached yesterday’s 1.1185 target in Asia.

Markit’s service sector PMI for the US in May showed a fall to 51.2 (forecasted: 53.1, previous: 52.8).

Market Expectations:

There’s no point delving into euro sales right now. Gold is up by 10 bucks in Asia. Brent now costs over $50 per barrel. The GBP is up against USD and isn’t for correcting. The USD is down throughout the market. A double bottom formed on Wednesday. With such a price pattern and a two-day pound rally, the euro/dollar could return to 1.1234 by the close of the European session. A rise will start if the hourly candle closes above 1.1190.

Day’s News (EET):

  • 11:30, UK secondary preliminary GDP for Q1 2016, preliminary business investment in Q1 of 2016, March service sector business activity;
  • 12:15, FOMC member Bullard to speak;
  • 15:30, US durable goods orders in April and unemployment benefit applications for the week ending 21st May;
  • 16:00, RBA’s Debelle to speak;
  • 17:00, US April uncompleted housing deals.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1149 (current Asian), maximum: 1.1234, close: 1.1223.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The euro/dollar has returned to the trend line. I didn’t manage to figure out what was the reason for this morning’s fall of the dollar. I just want to give you the head’s up that selling the euro is risky when all currencies are strengthening against the dollar and oil and gold are on the rise.

On Thursday I’ll risk going against the grade. The euro has stopped at the 45th Gann gradient. During European trades I expect to see a break in the trend line and a growth to the 67th degree. If the euro receives a boost from the euro/pound, then trading close in Europe should see the euro at 1.1234. Due to the double bottom, the 1.1080 level will have to wait.


Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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