The euro/dollar on Thursday closed down. The euro weakened against the US dollar after the publication of minutes from the ECB’s March meeting. The minutes indicated an inclination of relaxing further their monetary policy.
The euro met the support at 1.1337 (90 degrees) and then the price returned to 1.1385 (LB). There was no reaction from traders to the chiefs of the ECB and US Fed speaking. When trading finished in Europe, the pair switched into a sideways.
The calendar for Friday is pretty much empty. A spike of volatility via the euro/pound cross is possible when the UK stats come out. On my forecast I’ve gone for a sideways for the euro along the balance line with an average price of 1.1375 for the last 55 hours.
Day’s News (EET):
- 11:30, UK balance of trade, manufacturing production, manufacturing production in the manufacturing industrial sector for February.
- 15:15, Canadian new foundations lain in March, 15:30, employment changes and unemployment level for March.
For the past two trading days the 1.1334 – 1.1437 price range was expanded from 01/04/16 to 1.1326 – 1.1453. As a result, an expanding formation which is similar to a diamond has appeared. If it is such a pattern, we should now see the right side converging. This means that it’s not worth lifting above 1.1420 and dropping below 1.1330. Today I’m limiting myself to a 1.1345 – 1.1400 range.
Also, keep an eye on the movements of the euro/pound. If the rate falls below 0.8044, the euro dollar will shift to 1.1320. As I said above, the swings on the cross could start coming about at 11:30 when the UK stats come out.