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EURUSD: bulls await fresh growth drivers

The EURUSD pair finished with mild gains on Thursday, up 0.05% to 1.1931. During yesterday’s session, the price rose to 1.1956, from which it slipped to 1.1920. The correction was more due to technical factors than to fundamentals. Bullish momentum began to fade, and the failure to break out of the 1.1950 level triggered profit taking in long positions.

Final Q1 US GDP expanded by 6.4%. This was the final assessment, so it had no impact on the market. Q2 will end on July 1. Nobody is interested in data for the first quarter.

Today’s macro agenda (GMT+3):

  • 11:00 Eurozone: M3 money supply and loans to companies (May)
  • 13:00 UK: CBI distributive trades; 14:00 BoE quarterly bulletin
  • 15:30 US: personal income and spending, core PCE index (May), Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
  • 17:00 US: Michigan consumer sentiment (June)
  • 20:00 Baker Hughes weekly O&G rig count
1

Current outlook

Major currencies are trading in positive territory. The leaderboard is topped so far by the aussie and kiwi dollars. As was the case yesterday, Antipodean currencies point to continued risk appetite.

As of writing, the euro was trading at 1.1940. The price action has stabilized around the 55-day SMA (the so-called ‘balance line’). Market participants expect the release of US PCE inflation data for May. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

On the hourly EURUSD TF, technical positioning points to ongoing growth, while euro crosses show choppy dynamics. No market-moving macro releases are on today’s agenda for the single currency. If buying picks up, the bulls might be able to pump up the price action to 1.1970 by the North American opening, otherwise we should expect a drop to 1.1928. Watch for moves in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD pairs. If they continue to trend higher, the euro will head north against the dollar. The target band for the bulls remains 1.1980-1.1990.

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