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EURUSD: euro bulls take a breather after yesterday’s pullback

The EURUSD pair closed in the red on Monday, January 25, down 0.28% to 1.2137. The euro came under pressure during the European session after Germany’s Ifo business climate index dropped to a six-month low in January as the second wave of coronavirus brought the recovery of the Germany economy to a halt. The country’s economy is expected to stagnate in Q1, the Ifo economic institute said on Monday. The decline picked up to 1.2116 during the North American session.

Today’s macro agenda (GMT+3)

  • 14:00 UK: CBI retails sales (January)
  • 17:00 US: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (November)
  • 18:00 US: Richmond Fed manufacturing and CB consumer confidence index (January)

Current outlook

The euro took its time, but eventually dropped to the lower line of the channel. On Friday, the single currency was held back from falling by crosses, but on Monday it saw losses on the back of crosses declining against the euro. The price action did not quite reach the channel line itself. The market moved the pair into a corrective phase. At the time of writing, the euro was trading at 1.2129. There is an opinion that buyers will attempt during the European session to push up the price action to 1.2158 (LB).

Based on the wave structure from a low of 1.2054, one may assume that the euro will continue to weaken after an upward move to the balance line. Today I would like to focus on the 1.2085-1.2109 support range. The 1.2085 mark represents 76.4% of the growth from 1.2054 to 1.2190. To extend gains, buyers will need to protect it and bounce off this mark as high as possible.  

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