EURUSD: euro to remain under pressure

On Thursday, March 12, trading on the euro ended up down. After ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech, the EURUSD pair fell to 1.1056. Following the meeting, the ECB decided to leave the refinancing rate unchanged at 0.0%. The deposit rate remained at the previous level of -0.5%. The regulator increased its plans for the purchase of government bonds by 120bn. EUR (by the end of the year - not monthly). The press release confirmed that the QE program will work for as long as necessary, and will end shortly before the next rate increase

By the close of the day, the price recovered to 1.1226. Growth was accompanied by a collapse in stock indices. The S&P index fell by almost 10%. During the American session, stock indices looked to gain a boost from the US Federal Reserve announcement, which allocated $1.5 trillion USD to increase liquidity in the financial markets. None of these measures did enough to calm investors.

Today’s news (GMT+3):

  • 15:30 USA: Import Price Index (YoY) (Feb).
  • 17:00 USA: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar).
  • 21:00 USA: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.

Current situation:

The EURUSD pair had been floating around within the zone located above the line D4. The collapse of stock indices helped the single currency to make its way out of this zone. At the time of writing, the euro is worth 1.1205.

The coronavirus pandemic continues to gather pace. A significant increase in the number of cases in developed countries serves only to provoke governments to take reactive measures to limit the movement of people and to close various public institutions. Mortality from the total number of infected increased to 3.6%. In Italy, the figure stands at 6.6%. Investors fear a serious recession in the global economy.

Asian stocks traded in the red zone today. Futures on the S&P500 and DJIA rose by 3.9%. It can be assumed that the peak of the “panic” has passed, and European indices will open with growth. On the back of Christine Lagarde’s speech, we can expect the pair to fall back to 1.1120, around the 90th degree.

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