EURUSD: a mixed picture


On Thursday the 18th of July, trading on the euro closed significantly up to completely recover the losses incurred earlier in the week. The 1.1280 mark was reached once again, revisiting the high set on Monday. In the Asian session, the pair reached 1.1241, while the euro tumbled to 1.1205 during trading in Europe. This was brought about by very strong retail sales data from the UK. Growth across the retail sector increased by a factor of 1.5 – 3, both in monthly and annual terms.

The euro’s decline was also helped along by the Bank of England’s credit conditions survey. It’s worth remembering, however, that the tensions in the UK surrounding the change in government and Brexit still reign supreme. In the US session, the single currency began its recovery. Jobs data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey weakened the dollar, allowing the euro to rise, while FOMC members Rafael Bostic and John Williams added to the downside pressure on the greenback later on.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 11:30 UK: public sector net borrowing (Jun).
  • 15:30 Canada: retail sales (May).
  • 18:05 US: Fed’s Bullard speech.
  • 23:30 US: Fed’s Rosengren speech.

Current situation:

Yesterday’s range, in which the EURUSD pair continues to trade today, will most likely remain intact. The current situation is uncertain, however. We can’t rule out breakouts of both the upper (1.1287) and lower (1.1194) boundaries of this range. A breakout to either side will set the tone for the near future.

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