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Euro/Dollar: Price Returned to LB before NFP


Yesterday’s Trading:

On Thursday the euro/dollar closed up. Weak Eurozone stats saw the euro renew its minimum and then return to the LB after weak US stats came out. Unemployment benefits in the US were up and the ISM business activeness index was down.

The amount of unemployment benefit applications in the US for the week ending 26th September stood at 277,000 (forecasted: 270k, previous: 267k).

Markit’s US business activeness index was up from 53.0 to 53.1.

The ISM’s version of the same thing was down from 51.1 to 50.2.

Main news of the day:

  • At 09:00 EET, Germany is publishing data on August retail sales changes;
  • At 11:30 EET, the UK’s construction sector PMI for September is out;
  • At 15:30 EET, the US will release unemployment level figures and those for the NFP for September;
  • At 17:00 EET, the US will release its report on August changes in manufacturing orders.

Market Expectations:

On Friday investor attention is on the NFP as always. Expect euro/dollar fluctuations near the LB until 15:30.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: n/a, minimum: n/a, close: n/a;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 123 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar returned to the LB on Thursday during the American session. We should see a consolidation for the pair around the LB until 15:30 due to today’s NFP being out. The publication of the NFP will be sure to knock the rate out of position.


The triangle is still on the cards and so I’ve left the graph unchanged from yesterday.


The euro/dollar is still trading in a sideways trend between 1.1086 and 1.1456. We need to wait for a depart from this zone.

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