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Euro/Dollar: Expected Correction to LB

Hourly

Yesterday’s Trading:

On Tuesday the euro/dollar fell to 1.1112. In Asia the sellers shifted the minimum to 1.1104. Due to talk of an extension of Eurozone QE, hopes of the Fed putting rates up at their 28th October meeting have been reignited.

Main news of the day:

  • From 10:00 to 11:00 EET, September service sector PMIs for France, Germany and the Eurozone are coming out;
  • At 15:30 EET, Canada will release July retail sales figures, including numbers which exclude car sales;
  • At 16:00 EET, the ECB’s Mario Draghi will give a speech;
  • At 16:45 EET, the USA is publishing its September PMI in the manufacturing sector;
  • At 19:30 EET, the US Fed’s Lockhart will give a speech.

Market Expectations:

Over the course of the day, the euro/dollar fell to the D3 and reached the 180th degree. This is a serious level and on top of this the air reached the daily LB. Today I’m looking at a euro rebound to the 45th degree.

In the morning the Chinese stats disappointed the AUD bulls and pleasantly surprised those for the yen. The euro also bounced from 1.1104. September’s PMI fell to 47 against a 47.5 forecast and a 47.3 previous.

After the euro rebounds to the LB, I’ll once again be looking at the currency being sold. The euro is still under pressure whilst there’s talk of ECB QE and the Volkswagen scandal.

The Stated decided to correct their financial position using Volkswagen, whom it threatens with an 18 billion dollar fine for harm to the environment. The company’s stock has fallen by 36.5% since 17th September and by 59.5% since April.

The company now has to withdraw cash funds and accumulate dollars for the court. The conversion of their funds to dollars is offering short-term support to the USD. After the payment of the fine, Volkswagen could become bankrupt since the company will be downgraded form big-time to small fry. A new fall of the euro is taking place due to a fall in stock market indices.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.1160 (in the States), minimum: 1.1104 (in Asia), close: 1.1131;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 125 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar has rebounded from the D3. The current rate is 1.1135. In my forecast I’m waiting for a rebound to the LB. The euro could return to it in the European or American session. In any case, from the LB I will be looking for sales of the euro. The euro/dollar has the potential to fall to 1.10.

Daily

The euro has broken from the 1.1436-1.1466 resistance zone and returned to the LB. The interim target is still 1.1086 with the next target set at 1.10. Now to the Weekly.

Weekly

The euro/dollar has sneaked to the lower edge of the corridor. After a break in 1.1086, a pinbar will start to form.

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