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Bitcoin falls back from $40K again

Bitcoin jumped 4.47% to $39,476 on Thursday, June 3. The bulls failed to take out the $39,079-39,751 range and push the price action out of the triangle formation. Overall, it’s a miracle that the price managed to hold above $39k before the daily candle closed. The USD firmed sharply against peer currencies on the FX market, with the DXY surging to 90.55, while the 10YUST yield rose to 1.63%. Conversely, gold slipped $53 to $1,856/oz.

The greenback spiked higher following the release of upbeat macro data stateside. Both employment and services sector data outpaced expectations.

  • The ISM services index rose to 64.0 in May, up from 62.7 in April (vs. 63.0 projected).
  • According to the May ADP report, the number of private sector jobs surged to 978,000, the steepest rise since June 2020. The April reading was downwardly revised to 654,000 from 742,000 (vs. 650,000 expected).
  • Initial jobless claims (including seasonal fluctuations) totaled 385,000 for the week ending May 29, down from 405,000 in the previous week and a pandemic-era low (since mid-March 2020).

After this string of stellar data, traders started buying into the dollar on the conviction that the today’s NFP figure will exceed the baseline forecast of 650,000 and lend support to the greenback.  Given these strong readings, the inflation topic is bound to resurface as players expect Fed Chair Powell to weigh in further on the unfolding situation.

As we can see, the upbeat dollar-driven news flow was hardly conducive for Bitcoin to break out of the $40k level. In the upshot, the BTCUSDT pair fell to $36,072, retracing near the midpoint of the triangle formation. The range has narrowed to $34,439-39,310.

The US May jobs report will hit the wires at 12:30 GMT. Expect the FX market to experience a volatility spike when the headline number is released. Also note that the crypto market shows a delated reaction to external impulses, so if the market reacts, it will most likely be later in the session. Players will have to wait for the price to break out of the above range.

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