Brent oil is taking a pause just below $80/bbl mark, after having staged a comeback in the second half of March.
Brent’s gains this week were enabled by the disruption to 400,000 barrels per day of Iraqi oil exports, which tightened global supplies.
Oil benchmarks were also aided by the faltering US dollar this month, as banking turmoil on either side of the Atlantic prompted markets to slash bets over further demand-destroying Fed rate hikes.
The US PCE core deflator today may trigger fresh volatility in oil prices, assuming markets can ditch contagion fears and refocus on the Fed’s path forward in its battle against inflation.
Despite China’s higher-than-expected PMI data released earlier today, Brent prices are easing into the weekend and are on track for a third consecutive monthly decline.
Oil bulls have to find more demand-side relief, especially from evidence that China’s economic recovery is taking further meaningful strides, in order to be restored back to the $80-$90 range.
The global oil benchmark must clamber above the psychologically-important $80 line in order to restore faith in Brent bulls that the expected recovery in 2023 can indeed materialize.
Markets are widely expecting that OPEC+ would stand pat on its production levels at its weekend meeting.
2 June 13:21
Although on course for back-to-back weekly gains, oil’s advance for this week was significantly pared after Russia hinted that another OPEC+ supply cut may not be forthcoming at its early June meeting.
26 May 13:57
The global oil benchmark is on course to post a weekly advance of over 3%, ending a run of four straight weekly declines.
19 May 13:27
As mentioned in last Friday’s article, “Brent’s recent rebound is unlikely to be sustained …”. Sure enough, the global oil benchmark is unwinding some of its technical rebound, as demand-side fears continue to fester across markets.
12 May 12:21
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