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Are the bulls coming back to the oil market

On Wednesday, March 31, the oil market got tired of waiting for news from OPEC+ and traded lower again, with Brent shedding 1.7% to $62.76/bbl, and WTI slipped 1.8% to $59.29/bbl.

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting, held on Wednesday, failed to produce any recommendations for the countries participating in the output curb agreement.  The alliance is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting today but apparently the market views the recent developments as a disappointment. Meanwhile, according to media reports, citing unofficial sources, Iran has been ramping up oil production and exports to China, while OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said in an interview that global oil demand has been recovering very slowly this year.

This morning the market looks poised for growth, pricing in yesterday’s EIA report, according to which US crude inventories showed a drawdown of 876,000 bbl, whereas the consensus forecast called for a build of 107,000 bbl. Brent is up 1.66%, above $63/bbl again, while WTI is trading 1.64% higher, back to $60/bbl. Our Brent price forecast for today is in the range of $63-64.5/bbl.

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