USDInd consolidates amid trade talks. Eyes on the US CPI

• USDInd trades narrowly near 99 ahead US CPI release
• US-China agree on plan to ease export controls
• Possible easing regarding rare earth metals, tech trade limits
• Dollar under pressure near 2022 lows
• Technical: weak momentum, bears watch 99.60 level

The US Dollar Index hovered near 99 on Wednesday morning, moving narrowly as investors awaited fresh US inflation figures that could reveal the economic effects of tariffs.

Markets are also particularly focused on recent US-China trade negotiations, during which, both countries have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus, raising hopes for eased trade tensions.

US Commerce Secretary has also indicated that China may relax restrictions on rare earth exports, while the US considers loosening controls on advanced technology sales. It is now up to both presidents to approve of the agreed framework.

Despite this progress, the dollar remains under pressure, trading near its lowest level since early 2022. Investor caution persists amid concerns that President Trump’s trade and fiscal policies could dampen economic growth, prompting some to pull back from US assets.

Going forward, the dollar’s near-term direction will likely hinge on both upcoming US CPI data due to be released later today (June 11, 12:30 p.m. UTC) and further developments around US-China trade agreement.

Technical picture

The US Dollar Index closed at 99.200, slightly down from today’s open, trading in a narrow range. The price stays below key moving averages: 21-day (99.58), 50-day (100.10), and 100-day (103.06), signaling a continued downtrend.

Momentum remains weak. RSI at 45.47 shows neutral momentum, while MACD (-0.3929) stays below the signal line (-0.4317), suggesting mild bearish pressure. A move above 99.60 may signal recovery; otherwise, risks of further downside remain.