Daily Market Analysis and Forex News
Brent soars back above $80
Brent has punched back above $80/bbl amid the diminishing prospects of a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war.
Oil benchmarks surged after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apparently rejected a pause in fighting, saying "there is no other solution than total victory".
Those comments prompted markets to restore geopolitical risk premiums into oil benchmarks, amid still-persistent supply-side risks.
After soaring beyond that psychologically-important $80/bbl level, Brent was resisted around its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
However, its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has yet to reach the 70 line which marks "overbought" conditions.
That suggests that Brent still has more room to climb higher.
If Brent breaks above its 200-day SMA, then oil bulls will be tempted into revisiting that January 29th peak of $83,48,
Looking the other way, immediate support may arrive around the $80 line.
Oil prices are set to remain sensitive to the fluid developments surrounding the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, set against the broader context of global supply-demand dynamics.
A sustained recovery in oil benchmarks would require:
- greater prospects of Fed rate cuts
- steeper OPEC+ production cuts
- evidence of more policy support for the Chinese economy