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AUDUSD edges lower towards 100-period SMA following the RBA commentary

AUDUSD edges lower towards 100-period SMA following the RBA commentary

After hitting a 2-month high, AUDUSD is retreating towards its 100-period simple moving average (SMA) after the Bank of Australia decided to keep interest rates on intact (at 4.35% - a 12-year high), but left markets in doubt about future policy.

The markets were anticipating a potentially firmer stance from the RBA due to a higher-than-expected CPI (YoY) reading for Q1 2024 (~3.6% actual vs. 3.4% expected).


Despite the downward pressure, AUDUSD is still trading above key simple moving averages (21-, 50- and 100-period SMAs), underscoring the potential for a continuation of the bullish trend.

According to Bloomberg's forex model, there is a 73.2% probability that the AUDUSD pair will trade within a range of 0.65070 - 0.66840 in the next 7 days.

On the upside, the 2-month high (~0.66468) is the key resistance/target level for AUD bulls, while on the downside, the 100-period SMA (~0.65787) will provide immediate support.


  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is floating in neutral territory (<30 - oversold; >70 - overbought), highlighting the market's current state of uncertainty as no clear guidance was provided by the RBA
  • The MACD signals a potential increase in upward momentum as it is currently above the signal line


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