Gold prices have slipped below their 50-day moving average as investor sentiment shifted sharply towards risk-on, pushing US equities to new record highs. A key catalyst behind this shift is the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has sharply reduced safe-haven demand for gold.
Despite a weakening US dollar and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of 2025, gold has struggled to capitalize, weighed down by reduced geopolitical uncertainty and signs of progress in global trade negotiations.
Further pressure on gold could come from hotter-than-expected PCE inflation data, which may temper Fed rate cut bets and drive prices toward the mid-$3200 range.
Conversely, a surprise softening in this key inflation measure, closely watched by the Fed, could support a rebound in gold, lifting it back above the 50-day moving average.
For now, the precious metal appears confined to a broad $3,000–$3,500 trading range, awaiting greater clarity on the Fed's policy trajectory.
Crude oil benchmarks are on track for a steep weekly drop, with Brent and WTI each retreating as the Israel-Iran ceasefire removed a major geopolitical risk factor from the market.
The fading of Middle East supply fears has driven prices lower, although both benchmarks have recently steadied near the mid-$60 level. Market participants are now pinning hopes on upcoming trade deals to bolster global demand prospects, offering some support to prices.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ output policy remains a key wildcard, with any shifts in production strategy likely to dictate oil's near-term direction.
