Trading opportunity for currency pair: the rate of the AUD/USD has returned to the lower limit of the channel – 0.7629. The uncertainty surrounding Greece is acting as a support for the dollar. If the sellers manage to break the lower limit of the range and strengthen below 0.7532, the road to 0.7381 will open up. If not, wait expect a powerful recoil to 0.8162. The changeover lever to purchase will be the CCI when it intersects -100 upwards.
The last trading idea I did on the AUD/USD was on 25th May, 2015. Back then the AUD/USD had broken from the upper limit of an expanding formation. Due to this I expected a fall in the rate to the minimum from 2nd April – 0.7532. On 1st June the AUD/USD rate fell to 0.7597. From here the pair crossed over into a correctional phase. For thirteen days the Aussie has rebounded to 0.7597 against its US counterpart.
From 1st to 29th June a price channel with a range of 230 points has formed on the daily. At the moment, the Aussie has returned to the lower limit of the channel (0.7629) from a maximum of 0.7597. The correctional phase has lasted 19 days. Over the past few days the driver for USD growth and the fall of the AUD has been the uncertainty surrounding Greece and the low price of raw materials.
As you can see, the support zone took its beginnings from the start of February and has a wide price range. There are five minimums inside it. If the sellers manage to break the lower limit of the range and strengthen below 0.7532, the road to 0.7381 will open. If not, wait expect a powerful recoil to 0.8162.
From the two ideas, one can take just one of them or simultaneously formulate a trading plan from the two scenarios. As an example, look to buy with a stop upturn below 0.7532. The closer you can buy the Aussie to the 2nd April minimum (0.7532), the lower the risk. The lower the risk, the bigger the lot you can open. Either sell AUD and start considering buying it after an upwards intersection of the CCI -100.
Also look at the idea that I did on the AUD/SGD. A triangle has formed on the AUD/SGD. The triangle has a figure of an extension of the trend. The idea on the AUD/SGD will add to this idea.
This week there’s not much news on Australia coming out. On Tuesday at 04:30 EET the May credit report for the private sector in Australia will be released. On Thursday at 04:30 EET the May balance of trade for May and on Friday at 04:30 EET the May retail sales figures for May will be out. The main event of the week will be the American labor market report (Thursday). On Friday the US markets will be closed due to a national holiday.
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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
Director of Alpari's analytical department
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Senior Alpari analyst
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