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Short-term Trading Idea FX GBP/CAD – Bear Speculation: Expecting a Break in the Support

Trading opportunities for currency pair: on Friday the GBP/CAD rate covered the growth for the week. Reverse candles are forming on the weekly graph. If pressure on the pound increases and the 1.8950 support is broken, I suggest looking at 1.8682 as a target level. The idea will cease to be valid after a growth higher than 1.9119.

The head and shoulders March idea didn’t come off. The British pound jumped on the back of positive macroeconomic data for the country and cheapening oil. At the present moment, the weekly downward impulse from 1.8147 has started to fade, so the pair once again catches the eye.

For the idea I chose a 4-hour graph. It’s visible from looking at it the pound is trying to turn back downwards. In the first half of the week, contradictory data on the UK came out. The service PMI was lower than forecasted, whilst the manufacturing PMI exceeded forecasts.

Before OPEC convened, the GBP/CAD went up to 1.9218 due to the falling oil quotes. On Friday the Canadian dollar received support from strong data about the country’s labor market and the renewed increase in oil prices. On Friday OPEC decided to keep the oil extraction quota at 30 million barrels a day. This decision was already taken into account by the market: the price of oil went up.

Today I’ve done three ideas on three Canadian dollar pairs: AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD, GBP/CAD. The AUD/CAD rate has edged towards an important support. The NZD/CAD has stopped by the trend on the weekly. For the last two weeks, the GBP/CAD weekly candles have been reverse. In this case, either the Canadian continues its rise throughout the market or it recoils. Experienced traders are able to assess the different scenarios for themselves.

On Friday the GBP/CAD fell to 1.8978. If the weekly candles come off, I suggest looking at 1.8682 as a target. This distance from 1.8950 to 1.9218 (268 points) is subtracted from 1.8950: i.e. 1.8950 – 0.0268 = 1.8682. Monday is the day of recoils, so it’s necessary to either wait for a strengthening under 1.8950, or wait until the AC indicator shifts into a positive zone.

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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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