Trading opportunities for currency pair: growth on oil quotes is slowing. The USD/CAD rate is at the trend line, 50% fibo level and 35.2% from different waves. According to CCI and AO indicators, a bull divergence has formed. Conditions for an upward correction to 1.2280 are fulfilled. A close of the day lower than 1.1919 will cancel out further growth.
The rebound in the idea from 11th May didn’t come off. I’m still looking at a growth for the USD/CAD since the trend line needs to correct from its last minimum of 1.1919.
A series of weak macroeconomic data from America has shifted expectations of the US Fed’s rate rise to September. The dollar has been under pressure since April.
On Friday the dollar rate fell in response to weak reports for industrial production and consumer confidence. According to the data that was published, industrial production in April fell by 0.3% after a March reduction of 0.3% (reassessed from -0.6%). Economists forecasted a 0.1% growth in industrial production. The preliminary consumer confidence index at the beginning of May saw an unexpected fall to 88.6 from its April value of 95.6.
It’s worth drawing attention to the fact that, in comparison with other key currencies, the American dollar had slowed in its fall against its Canadian counterpart. This is due to the price of Brent Crude going into a phase of consolidation after its growth to 69.93. It is now stabilizing at 66.82 dollars.
The USD/CAD rate is at the trend line. I would like to note that the fall stopped at the 50% level from a growth from 1.1990 to 1.2834 and the 38.2% fibo level from a 1.0619 growth to 1.1919. The euro/dollar has also crawled up towards the trend. According to CCI and AO indicators, a bull divergence has formed. No matter which way you look at it, the USD/CAD pair fulfills the conditions for an upwards correction to 1.2280.
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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
Director of Alpari's analytical department
## ojimadu position
Senior Alpari analyst
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