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Short-term Trading Idea: FX NZDJPY – Bear Speculation: Break in Trend Line Expected

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the NZD/USD rate has broken the trend line. Since the NZD/JPY and the NZD/USD have a high positive correlation, I expect the NZD/JPY to break its line and fall to 87.27. Scenarios for falling will be cancelled out at a close higher than 93.39.

I did an idea on this pair on 30th March as an appendix to an idea on the CAD/JPY. I anticipated that the NZD/JPY would shift to 92.88 on the trajectory of an upward triangle. The NZD/JPY rate dropped to 88.73 and grew to 93.39. An upward triangle formation came about.

On Thursday and Friday American statistics helped the dollar. The key currencies in pairs with the dollar started to correct and this caused the yen to weaken.

Today I will concentrate on technical analysis without economic analysis of Japan and New Zealand. One signal has caught my attention and I couldn’t ignore it. In the lower left corner of the graph I have put a combined NZD/JPY and NZD/USD graph. The NZD/USD rate has broken the trend line. The NZD/JPY hasn't broken its trend, but closed right on the line.

Between the pairs there is a positive correlation of 0.9. I’m saying that the NZD/JPY will break its support just as the NZD/USD did. After passing 89.95, as something of target, look at 87.27 (11th March minimum and 61.8% from the growth of 84.04 to 93.39). Scenarios for falling will be cancelled out at a close higher than 93.39.

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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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