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Medium-term Trading Idea FX AUD/CAD – Bear Speculation

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the AUD/CAD rate is nearing the trend line and 0.9410 limit. Taking into account the weakness of the Australian dollar due to a fall in the price of iron ore and expectations of a relaxation of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia, I expect the AUD/CAD to head south to 0.8977.

Recently the AUD/CAD dropped to 0.9524. The price is nearing the trend line which was formed on the basis of 0.9576 and 0.9169. The size of the graph doesn’t allow us to see the whole picture.

Everything is heading towards the AUD/CAD going south to 0.8977. The Australian currency is still under pressure due to a fall in the price of iron ore and expectations of a relaxation of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The Canadian is doing a little better since the price of oil hasn’t fallen too much after the reaching of an agreement over Iran. Brent oil is trading above 55 dollars and WTI is around 49.47 dollars.

Now we’ll speak about the target level of 0.8977. I drew a line through the peaks 1.0716-1.0347. Then I connected it to a minimum of 0.9410 and 0.9169. A downward canal is visible. Taking the correction to 0.8977 into account, the AUD/CAD should reach the target by August. This scenario will kick off when the 0.9410 limit breaks.

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Attention:

Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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