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Short-term Trading Idea FX AUD/NZD – Bear Speculation: Development of Ideas From 14th December

Trading opportunities for currency pair: New Zealand dollar still looks stronger than its Aussie counterpart. There are 264 points left before parity is reached. The zone between 0.9988 and 1.0181 offers strong support for buyers. When growth exceeds 1.053, it will stop falling.

The last time I did an idea on this pair I looked at a decrease for the Aussie against the New Zealander with parity by the end of March 2015. On Friday, 20th March, AUD/NZD closed at 1.0264. There are another 264 points to parity. I think that the bears will manage it by the end of the week.

The Aussie doesn’t have much chance to do reverse the current trend. In his last announcement, the head of the RBA, Glenn Stevens, stated that the fall of the Australian dollar has not yet finished. To avoid a lengthy recession in Australia, they may well have to be the next to cut their base rate. Following the February reduction in the base rate, the RBA took a breather. On 3rd March, the regulator kept the interest rate at 2.25%

Contrary to the RBA’s actions, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand doesn’t intend to put its rates down. Incidentally, New Zealand’s economy in Q4 of 2014 had the most significant growth since 2007.

New Zealand’s GDP in the final quarter increased by 3.5% in comparison with the same period in 2013 (forecasted 3.4%). The increase in GDP in relation to Q3 was 0.8%. In the penultimate quarter, GDP growth assessment was reduced by 0.1% to 0.9%.

The zone between 0.9988 and 1.0181 offers strong support for buyers. Although both central banks want to erode the value of their currency, the New Zealand dollar is still looking stronger than its Aussie counterpart.

On Friday the AUD/NZD rate closed at 1.0264. The CCI daily and weekly indicators are lower than the minus 100 level. This shows that by the end of the week you can expect the AUD to fall to 1.0000. We need to keep an eye on how the price will act around the 1.0181 level. There’s a probability of a rebound, but according to indicators, there aren’t any prerequisites for a reversal. When growth exceeds 1.053, it will stop falling. Then one will be able to consider growth as part of a correction.

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