Trading opportunities for currency pair: after payrolls pound/dollar rate broke the trend line. Daily indicators unloaded, prepare for the onset of sellers. There’re two goals with this idea: 1.4950 and 1.4816. The scenarios for decrease will cease when the trend line is broken.
The last idea for pound trading was published in January after the release of the December 2014 report on the US’ labor market. Back then the pound/dollar broke the key 1.5252 value, but the weekly candlestick closed a long shadow and pointed to the possible development of an upward correction. During this time the pound/dollar rate corrected itself back to the trend line of 1.5351. From the line the rate bounced back up after the release of a report on US labor market values for January.
In contrast with the forecasted 234,000 and the previous year’s value of 329,000, the quantity of new labor capacity in the US in January was 257,000. November’s indicator was reassessed from 353,000 to 423,000, and December’s from 252,000 to 329,000. The overall recalculation amounted to +147,000. The level of unemployment rose by 0.1% to 5.7%. The index for US average hourly earnings showed a 0.5% January increase (forecasted: 0.3%, previous year’s value: -0.2%).
The NFP data exceeded market expectations and increased the probability of the US Fed increasing the rates in June this year. The pound/dollar rate decreased by 100 points to 1.5209. It could’ve fallen further, but was held back by the two GBP/EUR and GBP/JPY cross rates.
On Monday I expect a GBP/USD recovery to 1.5285. From Tuesday you can wait for a 1.5164 break and then movements towards 1.4950 and then to 1.4816 will start to develop. Ideas from 12th January and 9th February for a decrease won’t work when the trend line is broken.
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