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Short-term trading idea FX NZD/CAD – bull speculation: expected growth after a bounce to the trend line

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the NZD/CAD is at the upper limit of the upward trend channel. It’s worth buying from the trend line with 0.9585-0.9663 targets. Example purchase level – 0.9345 (23.6% from 0.8693 to 0.9548). Growth to cancel with a break of the trend line (daily candle closes below this line.

On Thursday and Friday the NZD/CAD rose 3.13% (+289 points). On Thursday, 7th July, the NZD received support from Standard & Poor's decision to downgrade Australia’s credit rating (AAA) from stable to negative due to political uncertainties.

On Friday the New Zealander strengthened due to falling oil prices after strong US labour market data. Job creation in the non-agricultural sector was up 287k against a 170k forecast.

May’s NFP was reassessed down from 38k to 11k. April was reassessed to 144k from 123k (last month it was reduced from 215k to 208k). The total reassessment was a reduction by 6k. Unemployment rose by 0.2% to 4.9% (forecasted: 4.8%, previous: 4.7%).

The NFP report gave short-lived support to the dollar. Traders used the strong data to sell up since the data wasn’t enough to affect the Fed interest rate decision in July.

Baker Hughes’ report interfered with oil prices rising. For the week ending 8th July, the number of all drilling rigs increased by 9 to 440. Annualised: this is a fall of 423 rigs. The number of oil rigs rose 10 to 351. Gas rigs rose one to 88.

NZD/CAD daily graph

The NZD/CAD is in an upward trend and has been since the end of April. The price is nearing the 0.9572 maximum from 29th December. Due to the reduction in Australia’s credit rating, demand for NZD will be higher than that for AUD.

I expect to see a fall in the NZD/CAD. It’s worth buying from the trend line with 0.9585-0.9663 targets. Example purchase level – 0.9345 (23.6% from 0.8693 to 0.9548). Growth to cancel with a break of the trend line (daily candle closes below this line.

Attention:

Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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