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Short-term Trading Idea FX AUD/USD – Bear Speculation

Trading opportunities for currency pair: a pinbar with an upper shade of 130 points has formed on the weekly. It’s a shame that the body is bullish. It’s highly likely that there will be a bounce. Look to sell from 0.7760 with a 0.7535 target. If the trend line is broken, set a target at around 0.7430. Don’t sell the Aussie if oil prices rise. A fall in the rate will be nullified by a close of the weekly candle above 0.7834.

Background

A pinbar with a 0.7834 maximum and a close price of 0.7704 has formed last week. The Aussie has updated its maximum due to the rise in oil prices. On Thursday after Draghi spoke the rise in the dollar saw the Aussie lose out.

Current Situation

Although the week’s candle closed with a bullish body, an upper shade at 130 points is enough for us to sell the Aussie with a 0.7384 target. Firstly though, we need it to close below 0.7630. We don’t need to sell the AUD straight away since we often see a reverse movement before the price falls, allowing buyers to exit long positions at a decent price. Sales on the rebound can be considered from 0.7760. Don’t sell the Aussie if oil prices rise.

On 27th April the US Fed will let us know its interest rate decision. No one expects them to up the rates. Therefore, if the Aussie in the first two days of the week does not strengthen against the dollar, it’s unlikely that it will return to 0.7834. At the moment we can consider the Australian currency falling to 0.7535. If the trend line is broken, we can set the target at around 0.7430.

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Attention:

Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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