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Short-term Trading Idea FX GBP/NZD – Bear Speculation: Development on Ideas from 28/09/15

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the 2.3378 and 2.2820 targets are still on the cards according to the downward channel. The first target is 21st August’s minimum and the second is the lower limit of the channel and 10th July’s minimum zone.

Background:

The last idea I did on the GBP/NZD came out on 28th September. Due to a growth in dairy prices, the 2.3940 support was broken. I expected a weakening of the pound against the New Zealand dollar to 2.3378 and then to 2.2820. The pound weakened against its new Zealand dollar counterpart to 2.3378 and then to 2.2820. The pound weakened against the NZD by 313 points over the course of a week to 2.3476. The price levels from the last idea are still ready for the taking.

Current situation

On Friday, the GBP/NZD closed around 2.3545 against a 2.3476 session minimum. The UK pound is falling before the BoE convenes; it is believed that the English will shift the date they are set to hike their base rate to Q1 of 2016. The Bank is due to convene on 8th October.

The New Zealand dollar has been strengthening due to a rise in dairy prices and a stabilisation of Asian stock markets. The 149th international dairy auction, Global Dairy Trade (GDT), will take place on Tuesday in New Zealand (at 15:00 EET). The GDT index has rose over the past three auctions (18.08: 14.8%, 01/09: 10.9%, 15/09: 16.5%).

What’s interesting at the moment?

The 2.3378 and 2.2820 targets on the downward channel are still on the cards. The first target is 21st August’s minimum and the second is the lower limit of the channel and 10th July’s minimum zone. The pound has fallen straight to 2.3476 and so if it hits 2.3378 it won’t be worth waiting for a sharp rebound. It could stop still for 10 days around 2.3378 and then start moving again.

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Attention:

Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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