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This Week: Can S&P 500 rally continue?

The S&P 500 is fresh off its best weekly gain since June, following last Thursday’s cooler-than-expected US inflation data.

However, with futures contracts now easing at the time of writing, perhaps the risk-on wave (outside of crypto land) is taking a breather, while assessing its next steps.

And perhaps the market’s collective risk appetite may take its cues from the following economic data releases and events:

Monday, November 14

  • EUR: Eurozone September industrial production; speeches by ECB’s Fabio Panetta, Luis de Guindos
  • S&P 500: Speech by New York Fed President John Williams
     

Tuesday, November 15

  • JPY: Japan Q3 GDP
  • AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia November meeting minutes
  • CNH: China October industrial production, retail sales, jobless rate
  • EUR: Eurozone September trade balance, Q3 GDP and employment, November ZEW survey
  • GBP: UK September unemployment, October jobless claims
  • Brent: International Energy Agency releases monthly oil market report
  • Former US President Donald Trump to make announcement
  • Walmart 3Q earnings
     

Wednesday, November 16

  • CNH: China October new home prices
  • EUR: Speeches by ECB’s Christine Lagarde and Fabio Panetta
  • GBP: UK October CPI, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
  • CAD: Canada October CPI
  • USD: US October retail sales, industrial production; speeches by New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard
  • US crude: EIA weekly oil inventory report
     

Thursday, November 17

  • JPY: Japan October external trade
  • AUD: Australia October unemployment
  • EUR: Eurozone October CPI (final)
  • GBP: UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt presents fiscal statement; speech by BOE’s Huw Pill and Silvana Tenreyro
  • S&P 500: US weekly initial jobless claims; speeches by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
  • Alibaba 3Q results
     

Friday, November 18

  • JPY: Japan October CPI
  • EUR: Speeches by ECB’s Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Klass Knot
  • GBP: Speeches by BOE’s Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel
  • USD: Speech by Boston Fed President Susan Collins

 

The slew of scheduled “Fed speak” is likely to reiterate their hawkish talking point, with possibly an eye on pushing back against last week’s market exuberance.

After all, the Fed is on a quest to tighten financial conditions, and equity market gains would only undermine the central bank’s ambitions.

And sure enough, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that policymakers still have “a ways to go” with its rate hikes. For one good CPI print does not mean that the inflation beast has been banished.

If US stock markets are forced to reckon with the Fed’s hawkish messaging, despite their willingness to “fight the Fed” as shown last week, that could unwind some of its recent advances.

S&P 500 bids time just below 4,000 mark

For the time being, the S&P 500 is biding its time just below the 4,000 mark.

If this psychologically-important barrier is meaningfully conquered (perhaps by way of multiple daily closes above that 4k mark), then the 100-day SMA around 4067 could offer some weight in resisting stock bulls.

However, if market participants realize that their exuberance from last week has run too far, an unwinding of last week’s gains could see the S&P 500 testing support around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement mark which resides at the 3805.8 level.

 

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