On Wednesday, the euro/dollar closed down whilst waiting for the ECB meeting and the US’ Friday employment report. Due to the ECB meeting, traders could forecast the US’ stats. US private sector employment creation came out worse than expected, with manufacturing orders down.
The ADP index showed that employment in the US private sector was up in August by 190,000 (forecasted: 200,000). July’s figures were reassessed from 185,000 to 177,000. Manufacturing orders were down in the country from 1.8% to 0.4%.
The euro/dollar was down to the 90th degree from 1.1318. At 7:29 EET it was trading at 1.1216. The euro was unwillingly closing down against the dollar, without sharp impulses.
Main news of the day:
Today some data on EU-wide service sector business activity is due to be published, in addition to the ECB convening. There’s not expected to be any surprise with interest rates. Draghi’s speech on the Eurozone economy, monetary policy and the situation in China has caught most market participants’ attention.
The euro/dollar is trading by the D1. The D1 and 90 degrees are the support. I’m inclined to believe the support will be broken and by 14:45 EET, the euro will be down to 112 degrees. The forecast which I’ve made is only for before the ECB convenes. It would be senseless to forecast euro movements for Draghi’s speech. You can also leave the indicators aside. They will work when the ECB chief has finished giving his speech. If we take a look at the close of the daily candle, the road to 1.11 is open.
The eurobears were able to close Tuesday’s candle yesterday. This bear takeover is a signal to sell the euro. Take note that the price is at the trend. If there were no ECB meeting, one could sell euros on the recoil, but in this situation we have to wait for Draghi to give his speech. He could ensure the euro hitting 1.12, or his words could cause a downward impulse, tearing off all of the stops beneath 1.12. Today I’m expecting a break in the trend line. Now to the next tab.
The euro is down after a recoil. It’s possible that Draghi will send the euro below 1.1155 today and in which case we’ll see a pinbar forming. In this case, the road to 1.0950/30 will be open.
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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
Director of Alpari's analytical department
## ojimadu position
Senior Alpari analyst
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