The euro/dollar spent Monday by the LB. After dropping to 1.0941, the euro recovered to 1.0988 after the release of US ISM data. As the data showed, the US ISM in the manufacturing sector was down to 52.7 in July against June’s 53.5 (forecasted 53.5). The employment component fell to 52.7 (forecasted – 54.7, previous 55.5) and in doing so had an effect on the index as a whole. New orders rose from 56.0 to 56.5. Markit’s July PMI stood at 53.8, meeting expectations and equaling the previous value.
Main news of the day:
- At 11:00 EET, the UK is publishing its July business activity index in the construction sector (strong effect on pound and on the euro via the euro/pound cross);
- At 12:00 EET, Eurozone producer inflation data is out;
- At 17:00 EET, the US is publishing its July manufacturing order volume changes.
This week trader attention is focused on Friday when there will be a publication of US labor market data and the Bank of England will convene. The Bank of England is due to set out its interest rate decision, publish minutes from the meeting and release an inflation report.
Taking the importance of the data coming out at the end of the week into account, the market needs to stay in a sideways trend until Thursday. On Tuesday there are few macroeconomic events planned, so I’m expecting a growth for the euro to the 67th degree (1.1010) in the second half of today.
- Intraday target: maximum: 1.1010 (Europe opening), minimum: 1.0932 (current Asian), close: 1.0968;
- Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 130 points (4 figures).
After a five-day fall from 1.1114 to 1.0964, the euro has formed a complicated bull divergence structure on the CCI and the stochastic. Taking the lack of news into account, I’d risk saying that the euro will recover to 1.1010 on Tuesday. It will look to close around the LB. I already wrote above that time needs to pass with things as they are until Thursday.
The daily candle for Monday formed inside Friday’s range. Friday’s minimum was 1.0920. If we see a break southbound, we’re looking at a fall to 1.0890: it’s unlikely to fall further than that since the ISM came out weak, not to mention employment values being down. Now to the Weekly.
On the weekly graph I have no comment to make as yet. We need to wait for a break in last week’s range.