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Contradictary Picture Across Key Pairs


The dollar rate has continued its growth against the euro and British pound on the American session. The euro/dollar rate fell to 1.0818 and quickly recovered to 1.0909.

The media added to currency market volatility with contradictory information about the possible Grexit (Greek exit from the euro). At first they were saying that Athens hadn’t reached an agreement with its creditors. Then the Greek government announced developments regarding a reform project and Athens coming to an agreement with its creditors. The Euro/dollar tumbled downwards and then shot back up. European officials refuted this information, but nevertheless the euro/dollar froze around the balance line

The result was that spike was formed. On the daily graph this appears as a hammer. A hammer is a reverse candle, but I’ve bought into a fall on the Aussie dollar and its Canadian counterpart, and so I’ve forecasted a drop.

I didn’t want to make a forecast since, at the moment, there’s a contradictory picture across the main pairs. As such you can notice the forming of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. It could slowly come off because the price has rebounded from the daily support (see markings on daily graph). If the euro passes 1.0940, we’re going back to 1.0980 (D3). I wouldn’t enter the market at this moment in time. The daily stochastic has given the signal for purchases of the euro.

At 11:30 EET some reassessed UK GDP values for Q1 are coming out. A value that is less than the forecast will provoke sales and a value higher will provoke purchases of the pound and the closure of short positions.

The May index for Business appetite in the Eurozone will be published at 12:00 EET. At 15:30 EET some data on initial unemployment benefit applications in the US.

GBP/USD Hourly Graph


The euro/dollar has dropped to 1.0818. Sellers have sullied the support, but the price rebounded on news that Athens and its creditors have started work on its reform program.

Yesterday a hammer was formed. This indicates that a correction could gather pace to 1.0980/90. Yesterday I wrote that the euro needs a consolidation over the next 2-3 days in order to take the rate to 1.0650. It’s worth looking at the bullish stochastic signal. It’s flipped upwards but be careful. It could cancel itself out since it has formed against the trend.

GBP/USD Daily Graph


The sellers have sullied the trend line. However, they’ve not managed to strengthen below it. If the weekly candle closes around 1.0980-1.10, then a hammer will form on the daily. It’s now better to be a spectator of the market and wait for the news to come out in the UK.

GBP/USD Weekly Graph


Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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