At the American session the euro/dollar rate again approached the 1.1070 mark after the publication of the US Federal Reserve’s minutes. Sellers didn’t manage to break the support since the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed expressed doubts about their readiness to raise interest rates in June. Simultaneously, they didn’t exclude the raising of rates at the start of summer.
Reaction to the minutes was varied. The minutes didn’t change the bearish mood on the euro. The euro bulls still haven’t been able to overcome the pressure that was mounted by Coeur’s words on the ECB’s program of quantitative easing. The euro/dollar rate was set in a range of 1.1061 to 1.1144.
On Thursday there’s a full set of news planned. At 10:00 EET data for preliminary business activity index values in the manufacturing sector of European countries will start coming out. Half an hour later Eurozone figures for the same indicator will also be out.
At 11:30 EET the UK is publishing its’ retail sales index. At 14:30 EET the ECB is publishing its minutes from its monetary policy meeting. At 15:30 EET, data on April US initial benefit applications will come out. At 17:00 EET April values for housing sales in the secondary market and the May business activity index from the Philadelphia Reserve Bank will be out. At 20:30 EET the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will give a speech.
Greece still hasn’t come to an agreement with its creditors. Any further exacerbation of the Greek situation and the euro will see sales. I’m inclined to believe that the euro will stay in the 1.1064-1.1144 zone until Friday.
So, what do we have right now? First of all, a break in the trend. Secondly, a fall to the 1.1050-1.1070 support zone. I’ve highlighted the W-shaped pattern on the graph so as to prevent you from having any big ideas about a fall for the euro whilst the sellers aren’t strengthening below the 1.1050-1.1070 support zone. In case of a fall for the euro below 1.1050, the closest target will become 1.0854 and if it falls further, 1.0650. If it jumps higher than 1.1211, then the pair may return quickly to 1.1466.
Here I’m going to repeat what I said yesterday: “The bears have just to strengthen the outcome and close at the current level or lower. If the euro/dollar closes lower than 1.1200, then next week the trend could be in the region of 1.0900-1.0850…”
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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
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