Today I've made a morning review in the old format of different tabs. In the first there is the hourly, in the second there is the daily and in the third is the weekly. Maybe I’ll add a 30 minuter to the hourly and 4-hourly graph in order to assess the euro’s situation at different points in time.
On Thursday my euro expectations rang true. During the European session, the euro/dollar rate grew to 1.1444. At the American session it dropped to 1.1342, thereby fully correcting its ascent.
In the second half of the day the reduction in the yield on German 10 year bonds began to have a negative effect on the euro. This was compounded by the ECB president, Mario Draghi’s, speech. Although he didn’t say anything new, he prompted traders to close long positions.
He repeated that the quantitative easing program as part of the bank’s monetary policy will be completed in full. The eurobulls decided to get off the hard shoulder (the U3 zone) and get back on the highway (its MA canal).
The euro/dollar rate renewed from a minimum of 1.1342 to 1.1408. The rebound was unwanted since it didn’t manage to form a reversed daily candle. Since today’s news calendar is empty, the dynamic of the euro will be affected by the crosses and the yield on German bonds. I’m inclined to believe that Friday’s pattern will be similar to that of Thursday. Therefore, I’m waiting for a test of the 1.1420/24 and a drop to around 1.1320.
On the daily graph, the euro/dollar rate is trading around the 1.1474 resistance and the trend line. What’s interesting is that the downward trend line intersects with the upward line at 1.1474.
Yesterday the sellers didn’t manage to close the day with a pinbar. If today’s forecast on the hourly works out, then Thursday’s candle will be fully covered. Such an outcome will allow the sellers to develop a downward correction to 1.1285. If the eurobulls refuse to budge and turn up the pressure today, there’s the likelihood that there’ll be a test of 1.1470/80 or the trend line.
On the weekly we can see a downward correction towards the trend line on the EURUSD. At the moment the pair is trading around the 90th degree at 1.1508. The AO indicator still hasn’t unloaded, but in which case the stochastic and the AC will be in a euro selling zone. On the daily the downward impulse is dwindling. On the weekly, such a trend is not yet visible.
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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
Director of Alpari's analytical department
## ojimadu position
Senior Alpari analyst
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