On Thursday, market participants who trade euros had all of their attention focused on the 10 year German bonds. Have a look at the graph below. When the bond yield hit 0.796%, the euro/dollar rate set a maximum of 1.1391. As soon as demand for the bonds increased, their yield began to fall. There started to be a fixing below the U3 of long positions on the euro. By the American session, the euro/dollar had fallen to 1.1294.
10 year German bonds
Downward pressure on the euro increased after the release of US labor market data. In a week, the number of initial unemployment benefit applications increased by 3,000 to 265,000, whilst a growth to 280,000 was expected. On this news the euro/dollar rate dropped to 1.1237 and following which the pair went into a correctional phase.
In Asia on Friday the euro/dollar rate fell to 1.1204 on the back of a reduction in the euro/pound cross rate; caused by preliminary results of the UK parliamentary elections. It looks as if the Conservatives and their party leader, David Cameron, will have a majority in the House of Commons with around 320 seats from the 650 available; the Labour party looks set to have around 240 seats.
The pound renewed its rally since, according to surveys, the Conservatives and Labour were set to have an equal number of seats in parliament.
The key event that the market is waiting for on Friday is the release of a report on the American labor market. The report will be out at 15:30 EET. Forecasts reckon that the unemployment level will drop from 5.5% to 5.4% and that job creation outside of the agricultural sector (NFP) will have created 224,000 jobs in April, against 126,000 the month previous.
The ambiguity and uncertainty before the release of the payrolls is being compounded by the US Fed. Part of which has announced that the US base rate could be increased at any of the Committee’s open market meetings. The other part has said that there’s no need to raise rates this year.
I made a forecast for up to 15:30. The euro/dollar rate corrected to the trend line. A fall in the euro at the 157th degree. I reckon that, due to a correction on the euro/pound cross, the key pair will return to 1.1255. By the time the payrolls are out it’ll be around the 1.1240 level.
Make Yourself at Home on the Forex Market
Alpari Cashback: decide for yourself, what trading terms on the Forex market will work for you! Trade, invest, top up your accounts at Alpari and get bonus points to further enhance your trading and investment terms.Register
Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
Director of Alpari's analytical department
## ojimadu position
Senior Alpari analyst
We're sorry, an error has occurred. Please try again later.
Notification of this error has been sent to our technical support team.
To be redirected to the European Alpari website, operated by Alpari Europe Ltd.,
a company registered in Malta and regulated by MFSA, click Continue. To remain on this page, click Cancel.
Попробуйте опубликовать пост еще раз либо свяжитесь со службой поддержки социальной сети «ВКонтакте».
У вас есть 24 часа, чтобы получить 50 бонусных баллов за свой репост! Эти баллы вы сможете использовать для улучшения торговых и инвестиционных условий в Альпари, а также уменьшения комиссий за денежные переводы.
Просто авторизуйтесь в своем Личном кабинете или зарегистрируйтесь,
если у вас его еще нет.
Обратите внимание, что для получения баллов нужно разрешить доступ к своей странице ВКонтакте сайту alpari.com/ru/.
Для этого на странице «Мои настройки» во вкладке «Приватность» в разделе «Прочее» вашего аккаунта ВКонтакте в пункте «Кому в интернете видна моя страница» выберите «Всем».
Field filled incorrectly.
This field is required.
This field is required.
Incorrect login or password.