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Dollar Weakens Due to Weak US Statistics (27th April – 3rd May review)

The last week of April was one of reputable loss for the US dollar. The euro/dollar pair gained 3%, the Australian dollar grew by 0.3% against its US counterpart. The British pound sterling corrected after a sharp growth, falling by 0.3%.

Data from Conference Board about US consumer confidence showed a fall in the indicator to 95.2 in April from its 101.4 value in March. The results of their expectations index showed a dipping to 87.5 points. The current conditions assessment index also showed a weakening to 106.8 points from a previous 109.5.

The US’ GDP, taking into account seasonal factors, for Q1 of 2015 grew by only 0.2% compared to a growth of 5% in Q3 and 2.2% in Q4 of 2014. The forecast supposed an increase in the American economy by 1.2% in the January-March period. Consumer spending was the weakest of all, growing by only 1.7% against a 4.4% previous quarter growth.

The US Federal Reserve’s April meeting turned out to be neutral. After a GDP statistical flop, investor expectations in relation to the tightening of monetary policy in the country shifted from July to the middle of autumn. The Fed’ interest rate remains in the 0-0.25% range.

Yearly Eurozone inflation in April stood at 0%, compared to March’s drop to 0.1%. Last year the rate was 0.7%. There are few prerequisites for an improvement in the consumer price index. The unemployment level with the inclusion of seasonal factors stood at 11.3% in March; unchanged in comparison to that of the previous month.

Preliminary UK GDP data for Q1 2015 shows a growth of 0.3% after a growth of 0.6% in the previous quarter. This is the slowest strengthening for the last 3 years. It was expected that the UK economy would increase by at least 0.7% over the January-March period. Statistics from Nationwide showed that housing prices in April noticeably increased: by 1%. This is a monthly maximum increase for the last 10 months.

Amongst other news throughout the world, it’s worth mentioning Fitch’s long-term default rating for the Japanese issuer of foreign and national currency from A+ to A. It had been forecasted to stay the same. China announced its intention to simplify the process of currency conversion to yuan. The CBRF dropped its rate from 14% to 12.5%. The Swiss National Bank announced a fixing of significant losses due to currency fluctuations.

The euro/dollar touched a two-month maximum at the end of April at 1.1289, following which it switched its growth for a technical slide back. What happens next depends mostly on Greek news and American stats.

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