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Euro Heading to Neck Line

Friday’s trades in Europe opened with a growth for the euro. The euro/dollar rate hit 1.0848 (90 degrees from the 1.0791 minimum). After American statistics came out the euro’s gains faded away. The euro fell by 114 points to 1.0734. Support for the dollar came from the growth in the US’s March yearly inflation index which doesn’t take changes in food and energy prices into account.

The US March CPI stood at 0.2% MOM and -0.1% YOY (forecasted 0.2% MOM and 0.1% YOY, previous 0.2% MOM and 0.0% YOY).

The US March CPI without changes in food and energy prices into account stood at 0.2% MOM and 1.8% YOY (forecasted 0.2% MOM and 1.7% YOY, previous 0.2% MOM and 1.7% YOY).

The US March CB Leading Index stood at 0.2% (forecasted 0.3%, previous reassessed from 0.2% to 0.1%).

The preliminary value for Michigan University’s April US consumer confidence index is 95.9 (forecasted 93.8, previous 93.0).

The limit didn’t last long: the euro/dollar returned to 1.0823. Michigan’s index didn’t help either. As a result, on the hourly a head and shoulders model formed. The day closed with a growth, but since it’s Monday, I’m looking at movements against Friday.

The Eurobulls didn’t manage to break the daily trend line. For a start I’m waiting for a return of the rate to the balance line LB (1.0765) and then to the neck line (1.0734). If the sellers manage the first two tasks, we’re looking at a fall to the MA line to D3 at 1.0695.

At 9:00 EET Germany is publishing its March production prices. A price growth is expected. It won’t have an effect on the market.

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