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Eurodollar Breaks Daily Trend Line

On Friday the American dollar fell throughout the market. Easter celebrations in Europe and the US have affected market liquidity and the volatility of currency rates. On Friday the pound broke the trend line right on the hourly. Disappointing American data labor market facilitated a sharp fall in the dollar.

Just as in March 2012, the data turned out to be significantly worse than expected. February US non-agricultural employment values increased by 126,000, whilst 244,000 was the number expected by the market. January values were once again reassessed downwards from 239,000 to 201,000. March was reassessed from 257,000 to 239,000. The February value was dropped from 295,000 to 267,000. A general review of January and February values were put at a reduction of 69,000.

The March unemployment level was unchanged, as expected, at 5.5%. A fall in oil prices caused mass lay-offs in the US oil extraction sector. The average hourly wage grew by 0.3%; 0.2% forecasted and 0.1% previous. In addition, from February to March, the percentage of the economically active population decreased from 62.8% to 62.7%.

On the thin market the euro/dollar grew by 40 points before the release of the NFP. Following the publication of the report the euro/dollar hastened its growth to 1.1026. Weak NFP indicators became the signal for traders that the Us Fed is not going to increase the base rate any time soon.

On the hourly graph I put in a section from the daily time frame. You can see on it how the euro/dollar rate broke the trend line on Friday. To fix the false break, the euro needs to return to 1.0863.

06 April, 10:41 (GMT+3)
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Attention:

Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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