On Friday the euro/dollar rate was trading below the 1.0690 level before the opening of the US session. At the American session the dollar crumbled against all the key pairs. The euro/dollar jumped by 190 points to 1.0881.
On Wednesday following Janet Hellen’s speech, the euro moved up to 1.1041 against the dollar. I’m not too sure if traders are using a formed price range in 4 figures for trading within the channel, or whether a serious rollback is brewing for the dollar.
The new daily Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) from 20/03/2015 doesn’t confirm any U-turn for the dollar. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report has a slice of traders’ open positions from 11/03/15 to 17/03/15 and doesn’t include trader’s positions after the US Fed convened.
On Wednesday the EUR/USD growth stopped near MA line U6 and by line U5 on Friday. Friday growth was 61.8% from a downward wave of 1.1041-1.0612. The euro has retreated to 1.0800 from its maximum of 1.0881.
What can one expect of the euro today? According to forecasts, I expect a return to 1.0687. On Monday I always make a forecast against Friday’s movements. Since there was strong growth on Friday, today I ‘m looking at a flat within 80 points. According to the forecast I expect fluctuation to 150 points. At 16:00 EET M. Draghi will give a speech in Brussels. He will speak about monetary policy, so you can expect the day to be volatile and it’s worth expecting sharp fluctuations whilst he gives his speech.
Taking the difference between the USA’s and ECB’s monetary policy into account, over the medium term, the dollar will keep its bull trend. Keep an eye on the news this evening: at 16:00 EET February data on pre-owned house sales in the US will come out; and at 17:00 EET the March consumer confidence index for the Eurozone will be published.