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EURUSD: correction to take the pair further south


On Monday the 7th of January, trading on the euro closed up. The single currency rose to 1.1483 against the greenback. This was triggered by a general decline on the dollar, which occurred in response to Jerome Powell’s statement that the Fed would halt its rate hike path if it sees the economy slowing down this year.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 09:45 Switzerland: unemployment rate (Dec).
  • 10:00 Germany: industrial production (Nov).
  • 10:45 France: trade balance (Nov).
  • 11:30 UK: Halifax house prices (Nov).
  • 13:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Dec), economic sentiment indicator (Dec), industrial confidence (Dec), business climate (Dec).
  • 16:30 Canada: imports (Nov), exports (Nov).
  • 16:30 US: trade balance (Nov).
  • 18:00 US: JOLTS job openings (Nov).
  • 23:00 US: consumer credit change (Nov).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

Trading opened down on Monday. The euro corrected from the 112th to the 45th degree. The pair hit a low of 1.1432 in the Asian session. In my forecast, I expect to see a drop to the trend line at 1.1413.

There’s a lot of economic news coming out today, although as far as I can see, there’s nothing important enough to cause any wild fluctuations on the market. Since the hourly stochastic is in the buy zone, I expect to see the rate recover to 1.1465 before dropping. If we look at the technical picture from the daily timeframe and higher, we can expect the rate to rise to 1.18 by mid-March. If conditions are ideal for buyers, the euro will reach this mark by mid-February.

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