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EURUSD: market awaiting US labor report


On Thursday trading on the euro closed up. The EURUSD rally was caused by the overall weakening of the US dollar against the background of weaker-than-expected US labor market data and a drop in the yield on 10-year US government bonds.

In the first half of trading in Europe, the euro was under pressure from the fall of stock indices and oil prices. Sinking oil prices are putting pressure on commodity currencies, which in turn is affecting other currencies.

Oil collapsed on Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih's statements that OPEC has yet to reach an agreement to reduce production. He hopes that the decision will be made on the 7th of December.

By the close of the European session, the euro rose to 1.1412.

US data:

  • ISM business activity: 60.7 (forecast: 59.6; previous: 60.3).
  • Factory orders for (Oct): -2.1% (forecast: -1.8%; previous: +0.2%).
  • Initial jobless claims: 231K (forecast: 223K;  previous: 235K).
  • ADP nonfarm employment change: 179K (forecast: 195; previous: 225K).
  • Trade balance (Oct): -55.5B (forecast: -55.20B; previous: -54.60B).

Day's news (GMT+3):

  • 10:00 Germany: industrial production (Oct).
  • 10:45 France: industrial output (Oct).
  • 11:30 Switzerland: foreign reserves (USD) (Nov).
  • 11:30 UK: Halifax house price index (Nov).
  • 12:30 UK: inflation expectations.
  • 13:00 Eurozone: GDP (Q3).
  • 16:30 Canada: unemployment change (Nov), full employment change (Nov), part time employment change (Nov), unemployment rate (Nov), participation rate (Nov).
  • 18:00 US: Michigan consumer sentiment (Dec).

Current situation:

The euro fell from 1.1312 to 1.1358. The current rate is 1.1376. A dense block of economic data is scheduled for today. Among the key events of the day are: a report on the US labor market, which is important for the Fed. Although the Fed is expected to raise rates in December, a new NFP report is needed to predict future rate increases.

The EURUSD pair is in the middle of the rising channel with the borders: 1.1317-1.1443. The 112th degree is also located at 1.1443. At the same level, the resistance is passing from the daily TF (a projection from the high of 1.1500-1.1472). If this level is broken, buyers will move to 1.1620.

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