On the 29th of October, we wrote a piece about NZDCHF. In that analysis, we were bullish and that was a great call. Since our piece was published, the price has climbed more than 150 pips higher, hitting new mid-term highs. Today, positive sentiment on NZD will continue, but we will change the second currency in the pair. Our hero for the 5th of November is EURNZD.
The pair has been falling sharply since the 8th of October. From the technical point of view, the decline is caused by the double top formation (yellow rectangle). What is more, the double top pattern, at the same time, is a false breakout formation, above the orange resistance. The combination of these two factors gave us a strong decline, which allowed the price to break the long-term upwards trend line (blue). That is a very negative sign and opens up the way to 1.655, or the lows from January and June. It is unlikely that this will be the case, and we will need a bullish correction in the meantime, but the chances of the price getting there are very high.
Summing up, our outlook on this instrument is definitely negative, and it is likely that we will see a further drop. Entering right now is a bit too risky though, mainly because it seems that EURNZD could be oversold at the moment. In all honesty, I would prefer to wait for the bullish correction first.