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EURCHF: buy signal on the horizon?

Generally speaking, October was pretty bad for the euro. We are not only talking about the main pair (USD) here, but about the broad market. Things may be changing, though, as EURCHF could bring us an element of hope.

It seems that the pair is getting ready for a major upswing. Until recently, we've been quite negative about the future of this instrument, but the recent price movements are pointing in the other direction. Our pessimistic sentiment was based on the fact that the price was in a downtrend and bounced from 38.2% Fibonacci. What is more, EURCHF broke the lower line of the flag pattern. The drop did not last too long though. Seven out of the last 8 days have been positive, and the price is targeting 38.2% Fibo again. That allowed the price to create an inverse head and shoulders pattern (blue).

As long as we stay below the Fibo mentioned above, sentiment will remain negative, but a breakout here will give us a proper buy signal. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at 23.6% Fibo, it will cancel the iH&S scenario, thus opening the way to new lows.


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